Investors seeking clues as to the future direction of global equities might turn to history as their guide; Morgan Stanley analysts led by Andrew Sheets certainly have. They’ve crunched the numbers on more than 40 bear markets thoughout history, defined as a more than 20 percent peak to trough decline.
Here’s what they found.
Every year, the market provides us with important lessons on the prudent investment strategy. Many times, the market will offer investors remedial courses, covering lessons that it has already delivered in previous years.That’s why one of my favorite sayings is that there’s nothing new in investing; there is only investment history you don’t yet know.
From China to the United Kingdom and Canada, 40 global stock indexes are down more than 20% from their highs.
Liquidity in the biggest individual high-yield fixed income funds varies significantly from one portfolio to the next, according to an analysis by Fitch Ratings.
2015 was another dismal year for commodities, the third year in a row of negative returns. Over supply continues to be the universal theme in the market, however capacity cuts are beginning to be announced. As the saying goes the cure for low prices are low prices.
The real curse for commodity prices, however, is on the supply side. The last decade’s commodities boom has led to irrational investment in new projects. China’s demand for iron ore and coal declined only this year, but commodity prices have been dropping since 2011. These price declines reflect concerns about a persistent surplus as mining firms continue to expand supply. Global iron ore production is expected to have increased by 100 million tons in 2015 despite the declining demand from China, and further increases are expected over the next two years.
A great post on Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates and how he views short selling versus being net long. The quote below from Charlie Munger mentioned in the article sums up the art of short selling and why most investors should steer clear of the investment strategy.
I’ve experienced the irrational exuberance of these type of promoters all too often when being short. Even being right on your thesis is not enough to be a successful short seller. Shortly after the 2007 iPhone launch, Palm announced that it would be coming out with a competing smartphone (the Pre) that was going to blow away the competitors. Backed by Elevation Partners the managing partner would go on TV every chance he could get to promote the coming phone and how great the sales were going to be. The stock rose until the eventual launch of the phone, once sales were seen as disappointing the stock began to drop, but Elevation engineered a sale to HP and managed to save their investment and make short sellers lives miserable.
“It’s dangerous to short stocks.” “Being short and seeing a promoter take the stock up is very irritating. It’s not worth it to have that much irritation in your life.” “It would be one of the most irritating experiences in the world to do a lot of work to uncover a fraud and then at have it go from X to 3X and at h the crooks happily partying with your money while you’re meeting margin calls. Why would you want to go within hailing distance of that? We don’t like trading agony for money.”
Great post by Josh Brown at The Reformed Broker about how listening to the market pundits can lead investors to abandon their investment plans to their detriment.
Let me wrap this up: 401(k) accounts are sacred, but they are not magic. They require a thoughtful person making decisions and behaving logically in order to work. The 401(k) users who have persevered through the large drawdowns of 15 and 7 years ago, while continuing to plug away with fresh contributions, are doing better than ever.
Source: The Farce Awakens