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Everyone is gnashing their teeth this morning because the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5%. But, they seem to be ignoring the other numbers. Yes, there was a shrinkage in non-farm payrolls. In May the job rolls shrank by 49,000 jobs.
BUT…
The expectation was a reduction of 60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate would be 5.1%
We had [...] Read more »

We’ve all read it in the various materials and heard them say it at seminars. Who is “them”? The gurus.
How many times have you read or heard someone say, “The best way to make money is in real estate! It is how the rich really do it! Look at Donald Trump, that is how he [...] Read more »

That is the first time in over 4 and a half years the number of non-farm jobs in the US has declined and it was totally unexpected by the pundits.
But, wait, there’s more! as they might say…
Wages also fell during that time. That is actually good news because it signals inflation pressure may ease in [...] Read more »

The unemployment number for December jumped to 5% from 4.7% in November. Non-farm payroll increased by only 18,000 jobs which is essentially a wash. Meaning about as many jobs were lost as added in December. Remember, these are lagging indicator meaning, the fundamentals in the economy caused the drop in jobs growth, the drop in [...] Read more »

I’m going out on a limb here but I really do think when the dust settles and the hindsight clears this quarter will mark the start of the recession.
I had hopes it could be averted and I still have hopes it can be minimized but I am a realist.
When the Fed dropped the rates 50 [...] Read more »

This is a soft number, the expectation was about 130,000.
But, grow is stable and the overall unemployment number is still relatively stable at 4.6%.
Based on this the Fed is not likely to change the overnight rate.
Many are still calling this a Goldilocks situation. To a large degree they are right.
The jobs numbers continue to be [...] Read more »

For the last few economic cycles we heard terms like that tossed around because the economy was getting stronger but it wasn’t showing up in the job numbers.
Now, we are faced with the opposite. We are seeing definite signs of weakening in the economy but the job numbers remain strong.
So, what gives?
Why don’t we see [...] Read more »

This morning the labor department released the June payroll numbers. The economy added 132,000 new jobs in June.
They also adjusted the May numbers up to 190,000 new jobs in May.
The unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.5% and hourly wages showed a small increase.
Yesterday, ADP reported 150,000 private sector jobs were added in May.
This is [...] Read more »

ADP is a payroll service provider and they routinely survey small to mid sized employers to get an idea of the job market.
Today, they released their latest survey showing an increase of 150,000 jobs in June in the private sector. This does not include any job increases in government. This was much higher than expected.
While [...] Read more »