I’m going out on a limb here but I really do think when the dust settles and the hindsight clears this quarter will mark the start of the recession.

I had hopes it could be averted and I still have hopes it can be minimized but I am a realist.

When the Fed dropped the rates 50 basis points it pretty much sealed the deal.

The dollar is falling, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing but the forces driving the decline are not limited to just affecting the dollar.

Oil is climbing and will soon surpass even the inflation adjusted highs of the early 1980’s. Retail gasoline prices will follow, it is just a question of time.

Inflation, no matter how you want to measure it, is on the verge of accelerating.

The stock market is schizophrenic and the housing market still has a ways to fall in many areas.

The sub-prime mess is going to be the tail wagging this dog for a long time even though it is a very small percentage of the overall lending market.

The signs of consumers pulling back are every where, if you are willing to look.

So, perhaps it is time to pause and sit on the sidelines for a little while.

I have stopped all acquisitions of anything under ten units and am very unlikely to purchase any more real estate until at least after the first quarter of 2008.

I am concentrating on consolidation and in 2008 I expect to complete the transition from SFH, Duplexes and Quads to larger apartment buildings and commercial holdings. They are easier to manage using employees and due to a series of recent events, I am all about simplification and having investments that do not require my day to day attention.