For the last few economic cycles we heard terms like that tossed around because the economy was getting stronger but it wasn’t showing up in the job numbers.

Now, we are faced with the opposite. We are seeing definite signs of weakening in the economy but the job numbers remain strong.

So, what gives?

Why don’t we see the employment numbers in sync with the rest of the economy?

There was a time when employment was a fairly reliable leading indicator of economic health but that time has passed.

Why?

Because a large segment of our economy is off the books! I’m not talking about whether illegal immigrants pay taxes or not. I’m talking about whether their jobs are traceable by any way we measure the job strength of our economy. Obviously, the answer is there is no reliable way to directly track their jobs. But, there are indirect ways and the data available should scare you.

There is measurable weakness in the retail sector, consumer confidence and durable goods even with continued job growth.

But, the job growth we see is not the whole picture.

If you look at the sectors most likely to employ illegal immigrant labor they are facing pressures from one of two sources and some are facing them from both.

For example, the meat packing industry is facing renewed scrutiny in an attempt by the federal government to demonstrate their ability to control the immigration problem. That is driving many illegals away from those jobs and the income they receive.

Another example is the building sector. Hiring illegal day labor is extremely common in the building industry and with the economic pressures today, fewer homes are being built and the demand for that day labor is shrinking fast. And, builders are facing renewed scrutiny for the same reason the meat packers are.

These illegals do two things with the money they earn. They send a major portion of it back to their home country and they spend the balance here on food, clothing, shelter, retail and durable goods. Are you starting to get the picture?

The weakness in the retail sector has been there for quite a while. It has been masked by the purchases from those who don’t appear to have income to the bean counters. Now, they really don’t have as much income as before and they are not buying. So, the cracks begin to appear.

This economic fact should scare you because as we solve the immigration invasion problem the economy is going to lose this money that floats in circulation. But, if we don’t fix the immigration invasion we are finished as a nation anyway so the economy has to adjust either way.

So, we are experiencing a “jobfull decline” but it is every bit a myth as the jobless recovery theory of a few years ago. The jobs were created during the expansion before and they are going away during the current correction.